4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to TB 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model