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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 5-J.Camarda punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model