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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(14:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 14-C.Godwin pushed ob at IND 25 for 19 yards (39-D.Baker).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model