Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(12:54) 12-B.Gillikin punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.89 EP
75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model