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ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2023-12-03 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

ARI
25.1%
PIT
74.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.235 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.082 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.092 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ARI 16
–
PIT 25
Projected margin: PIT by 9 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

ARI

Antonio Hamilton CB Out Groin
Starling Thomas CB Out Ankle
Michael Wilson WR Out Shoulder
Elijah Wilkinson G Out Neck
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Heel
Zach Pascal WR Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Joey Blount S Questionable Knee
Trey McBride TE Questionable Groin
Kevin Strong DT Questionable Knee
Jalen Thompson S Questionable Ribs

PIT

Montravius Adams DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 24
–
PIT 10

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:04 FG PIT (12:04) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. ARI 0 – PIT 3
  • Q1 05:48 FG ARI (5:48) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 3 – PIT 3
  • Q2 00:20 TD ARI (:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-T.McBride for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – PIT 3
  • Q3 07:21 TD ARI (7:21) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – PIT 3
  • Q4 08:33 TD ARI (8:33) 6-J.Conner left tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – PIT 3
  • Q4 04:30 TD PIT (4:30) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 24 – PIT 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (12:04) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:14) 12-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to PIT 29, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds. Penalty on PIT-28-M.Killebrew, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:26) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to ARI 25, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 83-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 35 for 10 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 70%

    (5:48) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:49) 6-P.Harvin punts 49 yards to ARI 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 16 for 7 yards (42-J.Pierre, 93-M.Robinson).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 11 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:17) 12-B.Gillikin punts 59 yards to PIT 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-C.Austin to PIT 37 for 11 yards (87-G.Swaim).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:56) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to ARI 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch. PENALTY on PIT-28-M.Killebrew, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at ARI 19.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 14 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:54) 12-B.Gillikin punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (4:59) (Shotgun) 22-N.Harris up the middle to ARI 1 for no gain (92-K.Strong, 43-J.Luketa).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:16) 12-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to PIT 7, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-32-J.Blount.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 82%

    (3:23) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 59%

    (12:28) 12-B.Gillikin punts 33 yards to PIT 4, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-16-D.Chisena. PIT-90-T.Watt was injured during the play.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:49) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to ARI 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at PIT 48 for 7 yards (28-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on PIT-28-M.Killebrew, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 48.