Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(14:16) 12-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to PIT 7, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-32-J.Blount.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model