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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.56 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model