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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 37

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 12-B.Gillikin punts 33 yards to PIT 4, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-16-D.Chisena. PIT-90-T.Watt was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.19 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model