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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 91

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to ARI 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at PIT 48 for 7 yards (28-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on PIT-28-M.Killebrew, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 48.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.29 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 91, worth -5.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.74 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 48, worth -2.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model