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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 33

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.88 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model