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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 58

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 6-P.Harvin punts 49 yards to ARI 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 16 for 7 yards (42-J.Pierre, 93-M.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model