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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 85

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 12-B.Gillikin punts 59 yards to PIT 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-C.Austin to PIT 37 for 11 yards (87-G.Swaim).

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.73 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model