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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 5

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP