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Carolina Panthers

HC Chris Tabor
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2023-12-03 · 16:05 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.0 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

CAR
26.8%
TB
73.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.175 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Bryce Young (CAR): -0.263 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 18
–
TB 25
Projected margin: TB by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CAR

Vonn Bell S Out Shoulder
Hayden Hurst TE Out Concussion
Tommy Tremble TE Doubtful Hip
D.J. Johnson LB Questionable Elbow
Jeremy Chinn S Questionable Quadricep
Yetur Gross-Matos LB Questionable Hamstring
Marquis Haynes LB Questionable Back
Troy Hill CB Questionable Hip
Jaycee Horn CB Questionable Hamstring
Nash Jensen G Questionable Back

TB

Lavonte David LB Out Groin
Jamel Dean CB Out Ankle
Mike Greene DT Out Calf
Devin White LB Out Foot
SirVocea Dennis LB Doubtful Illness
Chris Godwin WR Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 18
–
TB 21

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:16 TD TB (6:16) 1-R.White up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – TB 6
  • Q2 13:33 FG CAR (13:33) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 3 – TB 7
  • Q3 05:10 TD CAR (5:10) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – TB 7
  • Q3 05:04 TD TB (5:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans pushed ob at CAR 1 for 74 yards (23-C.Henderson). Tampa Bay challenged the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-26-D.Jackson was injured during the play. CAR 10 – TB 13
  • Q4 11:43 TD TB (11:43) 14-C.Godwin right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – TB 20
  • Q4 05:06 TD CAR (5:06) 30-C.Hubbard right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – TB 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 13 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 26%

    (10:38) 5-J.Camarda punts 36 yards to CAR 15, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:46) 10-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to TB 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 43 for 15 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (13:33) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (12:19) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to CAR 27, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 27 for no gain (22-C.Edmonds).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (10:16) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to TB 22, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:20) 5-J.Camarda punts 56 yards to CAR 20, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 43 for 23 yards (22-C.Edmonds; 98-A.Nelson).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 38%

    (5:58) 10-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to TB 7, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:50) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to TB 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 20 for no gain (42-S.Franklin).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 13 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:59) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to CAR 26, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 51
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 26%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:35) 10-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to TB 38, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:38) 5-J.Camarda punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to TB 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:50) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to CAR 27, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 35 for 8 yards (26-K.Merriweather, 41-K.Kieft).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to TB 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:27) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to CAR 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 22 for -1 yards (32-J.Hayes).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 19 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (:51) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to TB 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at TB 33 for 6 yards (42-S.Franklin).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 60%

    (6:34) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 17-D.Chark to TB 8 for 30 yards (24-C.Davis).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:40) 5-J.Camarda punts 34 yards to CAR 31, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-26-K.Merriweather.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:21) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Winfield [94-C.Kancey] at TB 43. 31-A.Winfield ran ob at TB 43 for no gain.