4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to CAR 27, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 27 for no gain (22-C.Edmonds).

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.11 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model