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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 46

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 10-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to TB 7, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.32 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model