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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
Carolina Panthers
4th & 16 at the 51
Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7
What Actually Happened
(:03) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right.
The Three Options
GO
-0.05 EP
What Happened
-
24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.08 EP
- 76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 51, worth -0.73 EP
KICK
+0.39 EP
Model's Pick
- 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
- 74% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT
-0.00 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.00 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP
