Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 76

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(13:35) 10-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to TB 38, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model