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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 61

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 5-J.Camarda punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.88 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model