Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Carolina Panthers 10

(3:27) 5-J.Camarda punts 48 yards to CAR 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 22 for -1 yards (32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.15 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model