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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 18 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:21) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Winfield [94-C.Kancey] at TB 43. 31-A.Winfield ran ob at TB 43 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.44 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model