4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 8

Detroit Lions 21 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:10) 36-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 8, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model