4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
DET Away

Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2023-12-03 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

DET
56.2%
NO
43.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Derek Carr (NO): -0.026 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO defense: -0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • DET on 3 more days rest than NO

Predicted Final Score

DET 24
–
NO 22
Projected margin: DET by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

DET

Hendon Hooker QB Out Knee
Alex Anzalone LB Doubtful Hand
Jonah Jackson G Questionable Ankle

NO

Marcus Maye S Out Shoulder
Kendre Miller RB Out Ankle
Rashid Shaheed WR Out Thigh
Pete Werner LB Out Shoulder
Cameron Jordan DE Questionable Ankle
Chris Olave WR Questionable Concussion
Blake Grupe K Questionable right Groin
Erik McCoy C Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 33
–
NO 28

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:19 TD DET (11:19) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – NO 0
  • Q1 10:28 TD DET (10:28) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – NO 0
  • Q1 08:21 TD DET (8:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – NO 0
  • Q2 09:11 TD NO (9:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 80-J.Graham for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 21 – NO 6
  • Q2 00:10 FG DET (:10) 36-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 24 – NO 7
  • Q3 10:08 TD NO (10:08) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – NO 13
  • Q3 04:42 TD NO (4:42) (Shotgun) 73-M.Garcia, 67-L.Young and 99-K.Saunders reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 24 – NO 20
  • Q3 00:01 FG DET (:01) 36-R.Patterson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 27 – NO 21
  • Q4 14:15 TD DET (14:15) 9-J.Williams right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 33 – NO 21
  • Q4 07:35 TD NO (7:35) 41-A.Kamara right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 33 – NO 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:44) 39-L.Hedley punts 41 yards to DET 35, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-K.Raymond to DET 46 for 11 yards (46-A.Prentice; 48-J.Gray).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:19) 39-L.Hedley punts 49 yards to DET 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-K.Raymond MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 32. 11-K.Raymond to DET 34 for 2 yards (7-T.Hill).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 19 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:45) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to NO 26, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 5-L.Bowden to NO 24 for -2 yards (42-J.Reeves-Maybin).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 40%

    (2:27) 39-L.Hedley punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:56) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to NO 26, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 5-L.Bowden to NO 26 for no gain (42-J.Reeves-Maybin). PENALTY on NO-27-I.Yiadom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 26.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (7:24) 3-J.Fox punts 59 yards to NO 7, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 5-L.Bowden to NO 10 for 3 yards (42-J.Reeves-Maybin, 46-J.Campbell).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (5:30) 39-L.Hedley punts 42 yards to DET 40, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond. PENALTY on DET-57-A.Pittman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 40.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (:10) 36-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (8:22) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to NO 22, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 5-L.Bowden to NO 38 for 16 yards (13-C.Reynolds).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (:01) 36-R.Patterson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:08) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to NO 15, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 5-L.Bowden to NO 32 for 17 yards (43-J.McQuaide; 57-A.Pittman). PENALTY on NO-28-L.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 28.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%

    (3:01) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 12-C.Olave.