Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 70

Detroit Lions 24 – New Orleans Saints 14

(8:22) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to NO 22, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 5-L.Bowden to NO 38 for 16 yards (13-C.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.81 EP
57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model