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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 13

Detroit Lions 24 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(:01) 36-R.Patterson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.90 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 13, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model