Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 75

Detroit Lions 33 – New Orleans Saints 28

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to NO 15, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 5-L.Bowden to NO 32 for 17 yards (43-J.McQuaide; 57-A.Pittman). PENALTY on NO-28-L.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model