Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 80

New Orleans Saints 0 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 39-L.Hedley punts 49 yards to DET 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-K.Raymond MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 32. 11-K.Raymond to DET 34 for 2 yards (7-T.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.93 EP
70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 80, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model