Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 75

Detroit Lions 21 – New Orleans Saints 0

(4:45) 3-J.Fox punts 49 yards to NO 26, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 5-L.Bowden to NO 24 for -2 yards (42-J.Reeves-Maybin).

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.01 EP
72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model