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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 5

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 7-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.52 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP