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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2023-12-03 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

IND
49.2%
TEN
50.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Will Levis (TEN): -0.041 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
TEN 22
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

IND

Julius Brents CB Out Quadricep
Jonathan Taylor RB Out Thumb

TEN

Treylon Burks WR Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 31
–
TEN 28

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:26 TD TEN (13:26) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 12:12 TD IND (12:12) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – TEN 7
  • Q1 00:17 FG TEN (:17) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. IND 7 – TEN 10
  • Q2 10:25 TD TEN (10:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – TEN 16
  • Q2 07:42 FG IND (7:42) 7-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – TEN 17
  • Q2 00:09 FG IND (:09) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – TEN 17
  • Q3 04:59 FG IND (4:59) 7-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 16 – TEN 17
  • Q3 00:26 TD IND (:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punt is BLOCKED by 20-N.Cross, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by IND-41-G.Stuard at TEN 18. 41-G.Stuard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 22 – TEN 17
  • Q4 11:36 FG IND (11:36) 7-M.Gay 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 25 – TEN 19
  • Q4 05:29 TD TEN (5:29) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 25 – TEN 25
  • Q5 04:24 FG TEN (4:24) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-17-R.Tannehill. IND 25 – TEN 28
  • Q5 02:34 TD IND (2:34) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 31 – TEN 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 23%

    (8:30) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (7:09) 8-R.Sanchez punts 53 yards to TEN 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 33-E.Garror to TEN 30 for 12 yards (50-S.Olubi).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (:17) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 33-E.Garror to TEN 23 for 9 yards (43-T.Denbow).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (7:42) 7-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 63 yards to IND 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 12 for 7 yards (40-A.Kendall).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:56) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 53 yards to IND 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 6-I.McKenzie ran ob at TEN 49 for 15 yards (37-A.Hooker). PENALTY on TEN-86-K.Rader, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 49.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 80%

    (:09) 7-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 48%

    (10:41) 83-K.Granson right end to TEN 39 for 2 yards (2-A.Al-Shaair).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (4:59) 7-M.Gay 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:36) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to IND 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (2:09) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 33-E.Garror to TEN 30 for 15 yards (38-T.Brown).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punt is BLOCKED by 20-N.Cross, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by IND-41-G.Stuard at TEN 18. 41-G.Stuard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:49) (Punt formation) 4-R.Stonehouse to TEN 11 for -11 yards (38-T.Brown). FUMBLES (38-T.Brown), touched at TEN 11, RECOVERED by IND-50-S.Olubi at TEN 13. 50-S.Olubi to TEN 7 for 6 yards (37-A.Hooker). TEN-4-R.Stonehouse was injured during the play.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (11:36) 7-M.Gay 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (4:12) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 33-E.Garror to TEN 22 for no gain (38-T.Brown).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 12 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:34) 6-N.Folk punts 40 yards to IND 30, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.