Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 16

(3:36) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to IND 20, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model