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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punt is BLOCKED by 20-N.Cross, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by IND-41-G.Stuard at TEN 18. 41-G.Stuard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model