Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 19 – Indianapolis Colts 22

What Actually Happened

(13:49) (Punt formation) 4-R.Stonehouse to TEN 11 for -11 yards (38-T.Brown). FUMBLES (38-T.Brown), touched at TEN 11, RECOVERED by IND-50-S.Olubi at TEN 13. 50-S.Olubi to TEN 7 for 6 yards (37-A.Hooker). TEN-4-R.Stonehouse was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.68 EP