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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 10

Indianapolis Colts 22 – Tennessee Titans 19

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 7-M.Gay 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model