Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 25 – Tennessee Titans 25

(4:12) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to TEN 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 33-E.Garror to TEN 22 for no gain (38-T.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model