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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 61

Indianapolis Colts 25 – Tennessee Titans 25

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to TEN 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.13 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -1.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP