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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.25 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model