Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- GB offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- KC offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.165 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- KC defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- GB on 3 more days rest than KC
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 13
GB
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:17 TD GB (7:17) 70-R.Newman reported in as eligible. 10-J.Love pass short right to 89-B.Sims for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – GB 6
- Q1 00:01 FG KC (:01) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 3 – GB 7
- Q2 10:44 TD GB (10:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 3 – GB 13
- Q2 02:23 FG KC (2:23) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 6 – GB 14
- Q3 09:41 TD KC (9:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on GB-90-L.Van Ness, Illegal Substitution, declined. KC 12 – GB 14
- Q3 05:28 TD GB (5:28) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 9-C.Watson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, declined. KC 12 – GB 20
- Q4 14:55 TD KC (14:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 83-N.Gray for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 18 – GB 21
- Q4 06:07 FG GB (6:07) 17-A.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. KC 19 – GB 24
- Q4 01:14 FG GB (1:14) 17-A.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. KC 19 – GB 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 KC 4th & 16 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%
(:01) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 KC 4th & 14 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%
(2:23) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 GB 4th & 17 at the 39Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.17 EPp(convert) 24% p(FG) 56%
(:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to KC 3, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-20-R.Ford.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 43%
(6:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to KC 11 for 33 yards (20-J.Reid).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(11:44) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to KC 19, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(10:53) 5-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to GB 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 25-K.Nixon to GB 23 for 1 yard (27-C.Conner).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 GB 4th & 14 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 89%
(6:07) 17-A.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 30 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 77%
(1:14) 17-A.Carlson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 33 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.70 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 71%
(:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left (20-R.Ford).
See the full breakdown →
