4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 36 yards to KC 3, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-20-R.Ford.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.93 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.17 EP