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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 12

What Actually Happened

(6:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 87-R.Doubs to KC 11 for 33 yards (20-J.Reid).

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.11 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model