Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

(11:44) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to KC 19, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.79 EP
74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model