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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 22

Green Bay Packers 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 19

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 17-A.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.23 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model