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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 38

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 16-J.Scott punts 29 yards to NE 9, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.75 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP