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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2023-12-03 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

LAC
56.8%
NE
43.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.200 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Bailey Zappe (NE) -0.014 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.112 EPA/dropback (NE starting Bailey Zappe in place of Mac Jones)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 25
–
NE 21
Projected margin: LAC by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

LAC

Zack Bailey G Out Back
Ja'Sir Taylor CB Out Illness
Nick Vannett TE Out Concussion
J.T. Woods S Out Illness
Keenan Allen WR Questionable Quadricep
Trey Pipkins T Questionable Wrist

NE

Kayshon Boutte WR Out Shoulder
Demario Douglas WR Out Concussion
Chris Board LB Questionable Back
Trenton Brown T Questionable Ankle
Ezekiel Elliott RB Questionable Thigh
Riley Reiff T Questionable Knee
Sidy Sow T Questionable Ankle
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 6
–
NE 0

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 40 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:13 FG LAC (9:13) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – NE 0
  • Q2 00:48 FG LAC (:48) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 6 – NE 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to LAC 14, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-D.Davis to LAC 27 for 13 yards (48-Ja.Tavai).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:09) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to NE 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 27-M.Bryant to NE 13 for -5 yards (53-B.Lynch).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (2:31) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to NE 6, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-24-A.Finley.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:29) 17-B.Baringer punts 70 yards to LAC 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 60%

    (13:41) 16-J.Scott punts 29 yards to NE 9, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:45) 17-B.Baringer punts 44 yards to LAC 45, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at NE 47 for 8 yards (14-T.Montgomery).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 91%

    (9:13) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 11 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 31%

    (7:07) 17-B.Baringer punts 32 yards to LAC 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (2:09) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to NE 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 15 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:49) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to LAC 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-D.Davis to NE 27 for 34 yards (14-T.Montgomery).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 91%

    (:48) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:47) 16-J.Scott punts 62 yards to NE 13, Center-47-J.Harris. 27-M.Bryant to NE 18 for 5 yards (33-D.Leonard).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 60%

    (11:16) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe scrambles right end ran ob at LAC 34 for 4 yards (9-K.Murray).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 19 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 46%

    (8:40) 17-B.Baringer punts 36 yards to LAC 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 17 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 52%

    (3:31) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to NE 2, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 24%

    (15:00) 17-B.Baringer punts 26 yards to LAC 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 29%

    (10:22) 16-J.Scott punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 78%

    (7:03) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe sacked at LAC 38 for -8 yards (3-D.James).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 41%

    (4:44) 16-J.Scott punts 32 yards to NE 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:05) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass incomplete short middle to 85-H.Henry (27-E.Bassey).