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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 70

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to LAC 14, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-D.Davis to LAC 27 for 13 yards (48-Ja.Tavai).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model