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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 49

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 17-B.Baringer punts 32 yards to LAC 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-41-B.Schooler.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.63 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model