Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – New England Patriots 0

(2:09) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to NE 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.38 EP
69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 61, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model