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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 20

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(:48) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.49 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model