Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – New England Patriots 0

(14:47) 16-J.Scott punts 62 yards to NE 13, Center-47-J.Harris. 27-M.Bryant to NE 18 for 5 yards (33-D.Leonard).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model