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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 19 at the 43

New England Patriots 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 17-B.Baringer punts 36 yards to LAC 7, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.57 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model